Magnitude 8-9 earthquakes are known to occur on the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) every few hundred years, most recently in 1700. In order to better prepare for the next one, hazard assessments are performed for a range of possible earthquake scenarios, modeling the impact of the earthquake, the resulting tsunami, and the massive amount of debris that would be generated. I will discuss some mathematical and computational aspects of this problem, including the GeoClaw software for tsunami modeling, the use of a Karhunen-Loeve expansion to develop a realistic probability distribution of possible future earthquakes, and efficient Monte Carlo sampling approaches. I will also briefly describe the Cascadia CoPes Hub, a new 5-year project funded by the NSF Coasts and People Initiative, with lead PIs from OSU and UW. This interdisciplinary project is focused on earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and other coupled hazards on our coast. For more information, please see https://cascadiacopeshub.org/.
BIO: Randy LeVeque is Professor Emeritus of Applied Mathematics at the University of Washington, and is also an Adjunct Professor Emeritus of Earth & Space Sciences and a Senior Data Science Fellow in the eScience Institute. He received his Ph.D. in Computer Science from Stanford in 1982 and has been at the University of Washington since 1985. Randy is a lead developer of the open source Clawpack and GeoClaw software packages. For the past 15 years much of his research has focused on tsunami modeling and hazard assessment.