Event Type:

Mathematical Biology Seminar

Date/Time:

Wednesday, January 19, 2022 - 16:00 to 16:50

Location:

Kidd 236

Guest Speaker:

Institution:

Oregon State University

Abstract:

The basic reproduction number R_0 is the number of infections caused

by one infectious case when the population has no immunity to

infection, when infections are growing exponentially. In models of

unstructured populations, R_0 predicts many important epidemic

statistics like the total number of cases over time and the

vaccination coverage needed to achieve herd immunity.

However, in a structured population, where some epidemiological

parameters vary with some population characteristic like age, R_0

provides no information on these important epidemic statistics. I show

by example, using two mathematical models of populations that have 2

epidemiological groups, that if one group is small but has very high

transmission within that group, R_0 is driven by this group and can be

very large, while the total number of people infected by an epidemic

or the critical vaccination coverage can be tiny.