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Forecasting mortality rates considering the impact of climate change

Forecasting mortality rates considering the impact of climate change

Start: 
Monday, January 27, 2025 11:00 am
End: 
Monday, January 27, 2025 11:50 am
Location: 
STAG 213
Amin Hassan Zadeh
Oregon State University

Climate change is an emerging risk that impacts everyone globally, with its effects clearly seen in everyday life - such as the recent wildfires in California. There is no doubt about its widespread impact. Insurance companies are at the forefront of tackling the challenges posed by climate change, as they are responsible for covering a significant portion of the losses. According to Munich Re’s NatCatSERVICE report, in 2024, natural disasters caused insured losses of approximately $140 billion globally. It seems likely that this number will continue to rise. Climate change doesn’t just affect Property and Casualty (P&C) products; it also influences mortality trends. Recent studies have shown a correlation between temperature and mortality rates for specific age groups. According to The Society of Actuaries suggests that mortality rates could increase by as much as 1–2% annually in some regions as a result of climate-related factors, which could significantly affect life insurance portfolios. In this talk, I will explore how climate change affects insurance companies and review the development of mortality forecasting models. Real-world data suggests that climate change factors should be integrated into future mortality models.

Contact: 
Philipp Kunde